Seat-by-seat forecast using Monte Carlo simulation, demographic analysis, and multi-party preference flow modelling.
Our model predicts Labor will win 38 of 47 seats (81%), delivering Premier Peter Malinauskas a historic supermajority. The Liberals cling to just 3 seats (Flinders, Mount Gambier, and Schubert), while One Nation breaks through with 3 seats (Finniss, Hammond, and Mawson).
Sources: Roy Morgan, YouGov, Fox & Hedgehog (Feb 2026)
34 seats
Complete sweep. Even traditionally Liberal seats like Bragg, Morialta, and Heysen fall to Labor. Not a single metro seat survives the swing.
13 seats
Fragmented opposition. One Nation wins Finniss, Hammond, and Mawson on protest vote. Liberals cling to Flinders, Mount Gambier, and Schubert. Independents hold Stuart, Narungga, MacKillop.
Margins from Antony Green's post-redistribution pendulum (Dec 2025). 2PP: Labor-Liberal
| Seat | Current Holder | Margin | 2026 Prediction | 2026 2PP | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adelaide | Labor | 6.2% | Labor hold | 64-36 | HIGH |
| Badcoe | Labor | 14.8% | Labor hold | 72-28 | HIGH |
| Black | Labor (by-elec) | 9.9% | Labor hold | 67-33 | HIGH |
| Bragg | Liberal | 8.2% | Labor gain | 53-47 | MED |
| Cheltenham | Labor | 19.1% | Labor hold | 77-23 | HIGH |
| Colton | Liberal | 4.8% | Labor gain | 55-45 | MED |
| Croydon | Labor | 24.8% | Labor hold | 82-18 | HIGH |
| Davenport | Labor | 3.4% | Labor hold | 60-40 | HIGH |
| Dunstan | Labor (by-elec) | 0.8% | Labor hold | 58-42 | HIGH |
| Elder | Labor | 5.8% | Labor hold | 63-37 | HIGH |
| Elizabeth | Labor | 12.4% | Labor hold | 70-30 | HIGH |
| Enfield | Labor | 15.8% | Labor hold | 73-27 | HIGH |
| Florey | Labor | 5.1% | Labor hold | 63-37 | HIGH |
| Gibson | Labor | 3.9% | Labor hold | 61-39 | HIGH |
| Hartley | Liberal | 3.6% | Labor gain | 54-46 | MED |
| Heysen | Liberal | 2.6% | Labor gain | 54-46 | MED |
| Hurtle Vale | Labor | 4.2% | Labor hold | 62-38 | HIGH |
| Kaurna | Labor | 6.9% | Labor hold | 64-36 | HIGH |
| King | Labor | 10.5% | Labor hold | 68-32 | HIGH |
| Lee | Labor | 5.4% | Labor hold | 63-37 | HIGH |
| Light | Labor | 2.1% | Labor hold | 59-41 | HIGH |
| Morialta | Liberal | 1.4% | Labor gain | 56-44 | HIGH |
| Morphett | Liberal | 4.5% | Labor gain | 55-45 | MED |
| Newland | Labor | 1.8% | Labor hold | 59-41 | HIGH |
| Playford | Labor | 13.5% | Labor hold | 71-29 | HIGH |
| Port Adelaide | Labor | 12.4% | Labor hold | 70-30 | HIGH |
| Ramsay | Labor | 14.9% | Labor hold | 72-28 | HIGH |
| Reynell | Labor | 6.4% | Labor hold | 64-36 | HIGH |
| Taylor | Labor | 9.2% | Labor hold | 67-33 | HIGH |
| Unley | Liberal | 2.2% | Labor gain | 57-43 | HIGH |
| Waite | Labor | 4.0% | Labor hold | 61-39 | HIGH |
| West Torrens | Labor | 18.8% | Labor hold | 76-24 | HIGH |
| Wright | Labor | 11.9% | Labor hold | 69-31 | HIGH |
| Torrens | Labor | 10.0% | Labor hold | 67-33 | HIGH |
Margins from Antony Green's post-redistribution pendulum (Dec 2025). 2CP shows actual final-two contest: Labor · Liberal · Independent
| Seat | Current Holder | Margin | 2026 Prediction | 2026 2CP | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chaffey | Liberal | 17.2% | Labor gain | 51-49 | LOW |
| Finniss | Liberal | 6.7% | ONP gain | 51-49 | LOW |
| Flinders | Liberal | 20.3% | Liberal hold | 52-48 | LOW |
| Giles | Labor | 19.7% | Labor hold | 70-30 | HIGH |
| Hammond | Liberal | 5.1% | ONP gain | 55-45 | LOW |
| Kavel | IND (retiring) | 3.5% | Labor gain | 54-46 | HIGH |
| MacKillop | IND (was LIB) | 22.6% | IND hold | 61-39 | HIGH |
| Mawson | Labor | 8.6% | ONP gain | 51-49 | LOW |
| Mount Gambier | Vacant | 13.8% | Liberal hold | 55-45 | MED |
| Narungga | Independent | 8.1% | IND hold | 58-42 | HIGH |
| Ngadjuri | Liberal | 3.2% | Labor gain | 53-47 | HIGH |
| Schubert | Liberal | 11.9% | Liberal hold | 67-33 | HIGH |
| Stuart | Independent | 14.1% | IND hold | 64-36 | HIGH |
This isn't a normal election. Labor is polling at 60% on two party preferred, a number not seen since the Liberals' 1979 landslide under David Tonkin. The Liberal Party has collapsed to historic lows, polling behind One Nation in most surveys. Premier Peter Malinauskas is on track for a supermajority of 38 seats, enough to pass legislation without crossbench support.
The question isn't whether Labor wins. It's whether anyone else survives.
For the first time in South Australian history, One Nation is projected to win lower house seats. Our blended model (combining How-to-Vote card analysis with survey data) gives them Finniss (Fleurieu), Hammond (Murray Bridge), and Mawson (southern fringe).
The mechanics: Liberal HTVs explicitly preference ONP above Labor. In deep regional seats, the vast majority of Liberal preferences flow to ONP. Combined with a strong ONP primary vote, that's enough to beat Labor in the final two candidate count.
Hammond is their strongest prospect (61% confidence). Finniss is a true toss-up (51%), and Mawson is a longshot (35%). Chaffey, once projected for ONP, now leans Labor (65%) due to higher Green primary vote delivering ALP preferences.
The Liberals are staring at their worst result in history. In 2022, they hit a then-record low of 16 seats. Our model projects just three: Flinders (Eyre Peninsula), Mount Gambier, and Schubert (Barossa).
Schubert is their safest seat. Leader Ashton Hurn survives thanks to the Barossa's unique demographics and strong personal vote. Flinders and Mount Gambier both benefit from One Nation splitting the conservative vote without reaching 2CP.
The loss of Finniss to One Nation stings. What was a traditional Liberal seat on the Fleurieu has swung hard to Pauline Hanson's party on protest vote.
The three crossbench independents are projected to survive. Geoff Brock in Stuart and Fraser Ellis in Narungga have personal votes strong enough to withstand any statewide swing. Nick McBride, who quit the Liberals for the crossbench, holds MacKillop comfortably.
Narungga is the only real question mark at 59% confidence. Ellis faces pressure from both Labor and One Nation, but his local profile should carry him through.
Murray Bridge. Liberal collapse hands it to ONP. Strong protest vote sentiment.
Southern fringe. ALP and ONP neck-and-neck. Liberal prefs flow strongly to ONP.
Riverland. Stronger Green vote delivers enough ALP preferences to hold off ONP.
Fleurieu Peninsula. True toss-up between ONP and ALP. Could go either way.
Yorke Peninsula. Fraser Ellis defending against ONP surge on personal vote.
Built on booth-level results from 2022, geocoded to the new 2026 boundaries, and incorporating fresh polling from Fox & Hedgehog (n=904, February 2026).
Our preference flows use a blended model: combining actual How-to-Vote card directions with survey behavioural data. HTV compliance varies by region (40% metro, 65% deep regional). This gives us 87% LIB→ONP flow in rural seats versus 67% in Adelaide.
We ran 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations per seat to generate confidence levels. Our booth level redistribution matches Antony Green's expert pendulum on 74% of seats. See the full methodology.
Aggregate state polling from Roy Morgan, YouGov, Newspoll, and Fox & Hedgehog (Feb 2026). Weight by recency and sample size. Current 2PP baseline: Labor 60-40.
Each of 47 seats classified as Metro (34) or Regional/Rural (13) based on ABS geography. Different swing patterns applied to each category based on demographic composition.
Census data (income, education, age, employment) used to predict One Nation and Independent vote share. Key finding: ONP vote is higher in lower income areas (r = -0.45 vs income) and regional location.
Full preference distribution modelled for 5-way contests (ALP, LIB, ONP, GRN, IND). Based on 2022 actual flows + national ONP preference data. Key assumptions:
10,000 simulations run for each seat. Primary vote and preference flows randomised within polling uncertainty bands. Seat winner determined by final 2CP/2PP count in each simulation. Reported prediction is modal outcome.
Model stress-tested against alternative ONP preference flow scenarios (40% to 70% to Liberal). Labor supermajority persists in all scenarios due to scale of primary vote collapse for Liberals.
We geocoded 350 booths and mapped them to 2026 boundaries. See how our analysis compares to Antony Green.
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Incorporated Fox & Hedgehog polling (n=904) with How-to-Vote card analysis. New preference flow model uses regional HTV compliance weighting (40% metro, 65% deep regional). Result: ONP gains Finniss and Mawson; Chaffey flips to Labor; Schubert returns to Liberal hold.
Booth-level redistribution analysis with Monte Carlo simulation. Initial projection: ALP 40, LIB 2, ONP 2, IND 3.
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